Hmmmm…. I sound crazy in the current context but here are few things which can potentialy kill Google.
1. Click Fraud – a company which lives by clicks dies by clicks(fraud ones). Click fraud has been an area of concern for lot of advertisers and they are bound to strike back. Initialy when people moved from traditional advertising models to internet advertising, they loved the measurability, simplicity and speed. But now the advertisers want to see real returns. They will not give Google their money just because they do not have better options. How about advertising in a revenue sharing mode(CPGC – Cost Per Good Click)?
2. End of search – Will search always be a big issue? Do you think that your TV remote is something for which you will pay a bagfull of money. The time is not far away when file search and net search will not be too different. I am sure Microsoft is already working on this. Browsers became non important part of the internet economy as features became competetive. Same is going to happen with search. Another issue with search is that it is totally non sticky application and migration for user is so easy that the companies will not even realize and exodus will happen.
3. Will people continue to do things on internet using a computer? I don’t think so. The computer is bound to make people’s life dull and boring to an extent that they would like to go back to humans in few years. Currently companies take pride in telling customers that you can access them via computers. Twenty years down the line, you might see ads which wil boast of the human touch. Computer will become a back end device.
4. What about Yahoo, Amazon and Microsoft – Don’t write them off. Each one of them is capable of striking back with vengance. Yahoo has been involved in establishing a relationship with users ensuring they touch all parts of their life. Amazon has been banking on web services and SOA models to drive growth and has also into A9. Microsoft has an old history of beating the shit out of other companies and they always miss the first bus by design but catch the second bus and drive it with such a speed that the first bus along with it’s passengers gets crushed.
5. Business via innovation – Google as per insiders information is more of a programmer’s paradise with innovations coming from these programmers. Is this a model which will continue to work as software industry becomes more mature. Innovation is important for companies to differentiate their service offerings but overdose of innovation without business perspective can also blow you up. Google with it’s background of coding before counting dollars may not be able to sustain.